潛獵筆記簿

新型冠狀病毒的疫情如火如荼，引發許多不同面向和層次的反思：國際情勢、國家社會運作、資訊媒體角色、經濟產業影響、生活氛圍、個人心態行為等等，如果處置得宜回應得當，危機也是轉機。

哈拉瑞（Yuval Noah Harari）這段2018年TED分享，實在是讓人產生極具實感的共鳴和高層次反思。

https://youtu.be/xHHb7R3kx40

首先，在簡短版的影片中，我完全不知道他其實不在現場而是透過網路和投影進行演講。

數位技術果真是21世紀的生活必需品，它可以打破許多時空限制。

疫情下的宅經濟、在家工作、線上教學乃至線上祈福雲端共修，數位網路加上相關配套，暫時支援一部分生活的缺口。

再者，他的演講和他的著作一樣，深入淺出，精闢生動，以極為簡單清晰的方式傳達重要的觀念和洞察。

簡短ㄧ句話定義法西斯主義：走向國家至上一元論，罔顧真相的粉飾意識型態。

“Fascism is what happens when people try to ignore the complications and to make life too easy for themselves.”

“There is just one yardstick: you teach the kids whatever serves the interests of the nation. The truth doesn't matter at all.”

“he problem with evil is that in real life, evil doesn't necessarily look ugly. It can look very beautiful.”

“Fascism makes people see themselves as belonging to the most beautiful and most important thing in the world -- the nation. And then people think, "Well, they taught us that fascism is ugly. But when I look in the mirror, I see something very beautiful, so I can't be a fascist, right?" Wrong. That's the problem with fascism. When you look in the fascist mirror, you see yourself as far more beautiful than you really are.”

思想家的真知灼見總某些程度的相應。在這個過於複雜又巨變的時代，人更不該為了簡化為了效率而走捷徑，此時以撒柏林（Isaiah Berlin）的價值多元論（pluralism）更加如同一盞明燈。

他反對用單一邏輯來理解世界，他認為必須承認每個人都有自身內在價值的多元繁複性。人對於價值選擇存在著出於個人認知的分別，並有相互衝突的可能性。所以取捨、妥協也都是必要的。

沒有任何一個單一價值可以被當成單一價值因此排除封閉其他價值實踐的空間。如果這麼做，對世界的解釋將偏離原本樣貌。

一元論意識型態在歷史的軌跡中不斷以不同形式挑戰人性。哈拉瑞進一步說明法西斯主義/專制獨裁政權在21世紀如何以全然不同的形式重新抬頭。

誰掌握資訊/資料，誰就掌握權力，誰就能夠操縱人心。

“Fascism and dictatorships might come back, but they will come back in a new form, a form which is much more relevant to the new technological realities of the 21st century. In ancient times, land was the most important asset in the world. Politics, therefore, was the struggle to control land. And dictatorship meant that all the land was owned by a single ruler or by a small oligarch. And in the modern age, machines became more important than land. Politics became the struggle to control the machines. And dictatorship meant that too many of the machines became concentrated in the hands of the government or of a small elite. Now data is replacing both land and machines as the most important asset. Politics becomes the struggle to control the flows of data. And dictatorship now means that too much data is being concentrated in the hands of the government or of a small elite.”

對於自由民主而言，威脅來自「不理性」。

“Another technological danger that threatens the future of democracy is the merger of information technology with biotechnology, which might result in the creation of algorithms that know me better than I know myself. And once you have such algorithms, an external system, like the government, cannot just predict my decisions, it can also manipulate my feelings, my emotions. A dictator may not be able to provide me with good health care, but he will be able to make me love him and to make me hate the opposition. Democracy will find it difficult to survive such a development because, in the end, democracy is not based on human rationality; it's based on human feelings. During elections and referendums, you're not being asked, "What do you think?" You're actually being asked, "How do you feel?" And if somebody can manipulate your emotions effectively, democracy will become an emotional puppet show. “

守衛自由民主，必須從每個人自我認識開始。

“So what can we do to prevent the return of fascism and the rise of new dictatorships? The number one question that we face is: Who controls the data?…….How not to allow ourselves to be manipulated by those who control the data.”

“The enemies of liberal democracy, they have a method. They hack our feelings. Not our emails, not our bank accounts -- they hack our feelings of fear and hate and vanity, and then use these feelings to polarize and destroy democracy from within.”

“it is therefore the responsibility of all of us to get to know our weaknesses and make sure that they do not become a weapon in the hands of the enemies of democracy.”

“Getting to know our own weaknesses will also help us to avoid the trap of the fascist mirror…… somebody puts a mirror in front of your eyes that hides all your ugly bits and makes you see yourself as far more beautiful and far more important than you really are, just break that mirror.”

綜合以上觀點，不難想像為何這次新冠疫災不僅凸顯極權國家與民主國家的差異，也試煉著所謂民主國家是否已通過現代化的考驗。

第一決戰點確實是在資訊與輿情管控。中國藏匿資訊、操縱輿論、散播假象。極權國家的行事，說關就關，說封就封。而台灣選擇在第一時間以透明資訊與一致的溝通，給予國人知的權力，從「知情」來履行國人應一同支持配合專業舉措的義務。台灣對於輿情的掌握和回應速度也令人激賞，但這並非出自單一單位，而有許多不同組織在資訊流動的系統中加以協助與支持。

確實，在這次疫情的戰爭中，掌握最多資訊/資料的指揮中心可說是掌握權力，面對來自輿論的各種要求或壓力，保有清明的判斷，勇於說不、指正、適當調整。拿捏疫情資訊與確診個案個資隱私的界線，考驗專業倫理。他們盡力善用擁有的權力來保護人心和人性，而不在用於操縱人心。

達賴喇嘛說，We are naturally driven by self-interest; it’s necessary to survive.  But we need wise self-interest that is generous and cooperative, taking others’ interests into account.”

指揮官陳時中部長讓人印象最深與感動的地方是，專業理性，但不殘酷。他拒絕情緒勒索，呼籲整體社會建構支持的力量和環境，建構信任的氛圍，降低人性虛弱黑暗面的蠢蠢欲動。

反倒有一群人，以各種形式散播不實資訊謠言，用聳動的語言扭曲事實和認知方向，意圖刺激恐慌等非理性行為。更無恥地濫用所謂「人權」「人性」進行情緒勒索。這些手段，跟極權主義者最擅的挑撥人際關係，瓦解人與他人關係的手段，有何不同？

對此，我們能否意識到自身的黑暗面和弱點呢？究竟是放任無知和情緒操縱驅動恐慌焦慮，還是喚醒增強著重事實理性的自主判斷力、而採取利人利己的行動呢？

在所有個人防疫舉措中，戴口罩的效果明明不如洗手，許多人卻將口罩議題無限上綱。坦白說，因為戴口罩是所有個人防疫舉措中最省事又最外顯的，殊不知，心理上的安全感，反而會讓人疏忽其他更重要正確的行為。想抄捷徑，是人性的自我保護機制，也是弱點。

健康與公共衛生議題遠超乎我想像的廣泛複雜，其中一個困難點就在於複雜的人性。為了增進整體福祉，人必須為了另一個對自己好的目的，違反本性做出改變。防疫減災這樣的要事，不但沒有捷徑，還不可能是單一個人、單一行為和單一決策就可以達成的，總是在眾多考量與眾多方案之間，因應情勢不斷權衡調整。

在近日新型冠狀病毒疫情危機之際必須回顧當年SARS風暴，過往的經歷為當下的選擇提供一些參考資訊，但不可能作為因應當下與預測未來的唯一指標。

「究竟為什麼要學歷史？歷史不像是物理學或經濟學，目的不在於做出準確預測。我們之所以研究歷史，不是為了要推知未來，而是要拓展視野，要了解現在的種種絕非『自然』，也非無可避免。未來的可能性遠超過我們想像。」  《人類大歷史》

不知哈拉瑞在2018年談起法西斯是否是個巧合？因為有不少人說，2020將反照1920年代的變局。

1920，世界瀰漫著末日氛圍，政治經濟崩毀，俄共出頭，德義法西斯醞釀奪權。卻也在這樣的時局，各種轉機出現。市場經濟制度有所變革，科技研發突破，為撫慰社會人們的焦慮無奈，文化活動反倒如雨後春筍。（當然，到了1930又是另一個劇烈轉折........）

2020的變局，也意謂著，有許多政治經濟社會生活的模式，將出現必要的翻轉。在此當下，恐怕還是得先確認中心價值，才能在變動的巨潮中站穩步伐。

當歷史的發展永遠有著人為選擇的空間時，選擇不會憑空進行，但選擇真的是一念之間的事。在歷史發展的層次如此，在個人的層次亦是。

參考資料：TED頁面包括逐字稿與延伸閱讀